I.O.U.S.A. hits theaters across the country tonight. If you haven’t heard, it’s a movie we made about U.S. deficits. It’s been praised by nearly every major media outlet in the country — by those from the left, the right and in between. It’s one of the biggest projects we’ve ever undertaken, and we need your help to make it a success. Tonight’s the night… find a theater near you and check it out.

By the way, after you see the film send your thoughts to your 5 Min. crew. You can give us your Siskel and Ebert thumbs, or the always entertaining “the good, the bad and the ugly.” Let us have it, here: 5minforecast@agorafinancial.com  

The king and queen of inappropriate debts, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, are hogging the market spotlight again today. If you haven’t been watching their charts this week, it’s been quite a show. Both are down about 45% since Monday. First, there was the Barron’s bit on Sunday, which declared the two firms insolvent. Then, both companies paid record-high premiums in separate debt auctions Tuesday and Wednesday. Today, everyone and their mother expect a government bailout.

Looking over the past year, the chart paints a pretty clear picture: Fannie and Freddie are next to worthless.

Funny, all pundits this week point to an inevitable bailout of the two belabored GSEs… at this rate, it’ll be more like a “receivership.” The race to zero is on.

  “The market has called Hank Paulson’s bluff,” says Dan Amoss. “Since Fannie and Freddie face huge refinancing commitments in a matter of weeks, the Treasury will have to act. Most likely, this means wiping out equity holders and assuming temporary ownership of these companies.

“After this, the future for these two GSEs will largely depend on Washington politics. Rest assured that whatever the outcome, the government will inflate as much as necessary to prevent the GSE balance sheets from imploding.

“But this process will not unfold without severe consequences for many stocks. The slow-motion unwinding of the credit bubble, along with the government’s reaction, will yield many attractive short-selling opportunities.”

Indeed, it will. Dan’s Strategic Short Report readers are well positioned for such an event. If you’d like to be as well, you’ve got to check out SSR by midnight tonight. We’re currently offering three free months of this service, but our deal is off the table after 12 a.m.. Get the details, here.

  Here’s another worrisome new trend in the financial sector: Two sovereign wealth funds just took a pass at purchasing a gigantic stake in Lehman Brothers. Rumors abound this morning that Lehman has been offering to sell 50% of itself to state-owned banks in China and South Korea. Both foreign investors balked at the last minute.

  Mr. Market isn’t having a hard time dealing with the latest stress from financials. The Dow and S&P 500 rose 0.6% yesterday, led mostly by gains in the energy sector and a nice earnings report from Hewlett-Packard. The Nasdaq finished up 0.2%.

  Most of the world’s advanced economies grew at the slowest rate in the second quarter since 2001, says the OECD today. The organization claims its 30 member nations grew at a lousy 0.2% clip from the first to the second quarter. Since the same time in 2007, OECD members have expanded only 1.9%.

Not surprisingly, of all the 30 nations, the G-7 had the worst growth during the quarter. That’s the U.S., Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Canada. Together, they “grew” 0.1%. If the great decoupling theory is to come to fruition, it looks like Europe won’t be a beneficiary.

  “Big Pharma is battling for valuable market share in China,” notes our small cap adviser Greg Guenthner. While the world’s eyes are currently fixed on the Chinese athletic industry, Gunner’s been taking notes on the booming drug sector.

“The stampede of the Chinese middle class is startling. This is especially evident in the drug market. As the People’s Republic’s social status rises, so does the level of health care.

“Bayer reps say revenue from China is growing at a 40% annual clip… (that’s worth more than $500 million in 2008). That’s a lotta dough. According to Reuters, Bayer thinks it can become the biggest seller of prescription drugs in China this year, bypassing current Numero Uno AstraZeneca.

“An even better play? Generics… sales of cheaper, simpler drugs (like antibiotics) are exploding as more and more new middle-class Chinese can afford quality health care.”

To capitalize on this trend, Gunner recommends an over the counter (OTC) play to his Bulletin Board Elite readers. The stock is a pure play on Chinese generics and drug ingredients — the No. 1 supplier, triple-digit growth… everything you’d want in a potential small-cap moonshot. Get the ticker, here.  

  Currencies around the world have reversed course today. The dollar’s huge rally has officially paused. At 76.2, the dollar index is now a full point off Tuesday’s eight-month high of 77.4. The euro has firmed up a cent, to about $1.48. Ditto with the pound, up to $1.87.

We pay special attention to the Japanese yen this morning. While the Nipponese currency felt the sting of the dollar rally this month, it’s held up exceptionally well. At 108 today, it’s as if the dollar rebound never happened.

“Risk aversion is returning to the markets,” notes Chuck Butler. “Fannie and Freddie shares are down about 30% overnight, as it now appears that a nationalization bailout is the real McCoy. With risk back on the table, the yen has rallied to the 108 handle!”

  Consequentially, gold remains in its recent uptrend. The spot price has drifted up another $25 today, to about $840.

  Oil is off to the races today. The light sweet stuff is up $6 as we write, to $121. Oil has risen partly because of a softer dollar. But we’re also noticing two important current events for energy — Tropical Storm Fay and the conflict in Georgia — just won’t seem to go away.

“Looking in the long term,” says Byron King, “gold and oil are headed back up, for all the familiar reasons. Really, it’s not like anyone is finding new large gold or oil deposits out in exploration land.” Byron sounds like he’s taking a closer look at some of the resource takeover targets — smaller, depressed names with proven reserves.

“Indeed, a whole lot of looking is leading to not very much finding in the exploration patch. The big gold miners are pulling ore out of the ground. But generally, they are not replacing their mined reserves through reserve growth or resource expansion. To the extent that the mining companies are expanding reserves in the short term, it’s by digging deeper. And that raises the cost structure for production.

“Rising production costs are eating into profitability. So in the medium to long term, the big guys will have to find new reserves by digging on Wall Street, if not on the TSX Venture Exchange. There is already some takeover activity occurring, but it has been hamstrung by the broken world banking system. It’s the same thing with the large Western oil companies. It’s a rare oil company that replaces its annual output with new reserves.”

  But gasoline prices in the States are still falling. The national average crept down to $3.71 today, the 34th straight day of decline. Only four states still average over $4 a gallon.

  If you thought energy prices had entered bubble territory, check out the recent history of college tuition!

Last week , we told you poor economic conditions have driven record numbers to pursue their MBA. Today, we’re reminded it will come at an incredible cost. According to the latest issue of Money magazine, college tuition rates over the last 25 years have risen “at a faster rate than costs have risen on any other major product or service — four times faster than the overall inflation rate.” As the chart the magazine provided shows, the rising cost of higher education puts ballooning energy and health care costs to shame.

Incredible, isn’t it? We have to wonder… when is college simply no longer “worth it”?

  “To notice that huge influx of immigrants,” writes a reader, refusing to let go of the immigration debate that fills our inbox, “often creates more stress and unfriendliness and degrades the quality of life does not mean one is xenophobic.
 
“They are just expressing what they have noticed. I have noticed it to be true, as well. There is definitely less cohesiveness, friendliness and safety with high levels of foreign immigration.
 
“People are tired of being called these names just for noticing the obvious. It’s immature and juvenile to do so. Maybe you should listen and respect these points of view. That would be a novel idea.”

  “Look at what’s happening in not only the U.S., but also so-called Old Europe,” writes another reader in reference to our comments yesterday. “The culture, institutions and fabric of these societies are being shredded by large numbers of immigrants (mostly legal there, mostly illegal here) who have little desire to ‘become Americans.’ I live in California, practically the epicenter of American immigration, and have since 1984. Anyone who [denies] the nature and extent of the Hispanic immigration that’s occurred over the past 10 or so years is either willfully blind, a charter member of La Raza or a pandering politician looking for votes like most of the local and state politicians in California. Of course, to my mind, the crux of the entire immigration ‘problem’ lies with the social benefits paid out to the populace as bread and circuses, as Bill Bonner is fond of saying, as well as the perverse rule that a child born of illegal immigrants in the U.S. automatically is a U.S. citizen. Gee, guess how the illegal immigrant is incentivized?

“I realize the risk of making generalizations, but today’s immigration is different than earlier immigration. I think it’s different for at least two important reasons: 1) the pox of government interventions in society and financial and other giveaways to constituencies has exploded since about the 1930s, and 2) the fact of large numbers of today’s immigrants come from across our shared border with Mexico, a country with many ‘have-nots,’ a political class not forced to address their country’s problems because so many of the dissatisfied or poorest come here and a country that at one time had sovereignty over much of what is the present-day Southwestern U.S.
 
“Your comment was unfair, meant to be sensational and just plain off the mark, I believe. That said, I do enjoy reading The 5.”

Glad to hear it,

Ian Mathias
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. “The catastrophe looming in the documentary I.O.U.S.A.,” reads the AP story on CNN’s front page today, “isn’t romantic like the doomed young love in Titanic, but billionaires Warren Buffett and Pete Peterson warn it could break many more hearts.

“The disaster they warn of could be bigger than any we’ve ever seen — bigger than an iceberg, bigger even than the current mortgage crisis.”

Heh, and people say we’re dramatic… sounds like one of our promotions! You can read the rest of the AP’s coverage of the film, here. And while you’re sipping your morning brew tomorrow, turn on the boob tube. Warren Buffett will be sharing his thoughts on the film on CNBC.

P.P.S. Addison sends his regards from the road. He’s off to Omaha for dinner with Buffett and the red carpet premiere of I.O.U.S.A. Stick with The 5 for the juicy details. We’ll fill you in tomorrow.

  “It takes new money to keep a credit bubble inflated (or to keep it from deflating),” says Dan Denning, watching events from down under. “If the figures from the Fed can be trusted, and if they show that new money isn’t forthcoming, then it may be a sign of even greater financial asset deflation in the months ahead.

“Translation: It’s going to get a lot worse. If stocks are cheap, they’re going to get even cheaper. It means if good resource projects are good values now, they’ll be even better values as the market falls.

“Not that it’s an easy thing to stomach. But let’s remember what we’re watching here. As investors delever and pay down debts, they sell assets to raise cash. It’s a bull market in cash. And money that is used to pay down debt is money that is not spent on stocks or new cars or the things people spend money on when they aren’t worried about debt.”

  As if to put a point on the issue, mortgage applications fell to their lowest level in nearly eight years last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s application index fell to 419.3 today, the worst score since December 2000 and a 61% crash in volume since February 2008. For reference, that same index peaked at 1,856.7 in 2003.

  “The U.S. is not out of the woods,” chimed in Harvard professor and former IMF chief Kenneth Rogoff this week. “I think the financial crisis is at the halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come.”

Speaking at a conference in Singapore, the former head of the IMF said, “We’re not just going to see midsized banks go under in the next few months; we’re going to see a whopper, we’re going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks… Probably Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — despite what U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said — these giant mortgage guarantee agencies are not going to exist in their present forms in a few years."

  Goldman Sachs also warned today it expects this fall may not be such a great time for financials. Goldman analysts cut third-quarter and full-year forecasts for Citi, J.P. Morgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley yesterday — all in one fell swoop.

“We believe a major recovery is still a few quarters away," wrote lead analyst William Tanona. “We assume no or negative earnings for the majority of firms in our universe this quarter.”

Heh. Not that we disagree with Goldman on this one, but it must be nice to be able to downgrade all your major competitors. Nope, no conflict of interest there.

  One last word on Goldman… quants on the other side of the building reiterated their call for $149 oil today. Back in early summer, Goldman said oil was poised for a “superspike” to $200 sometime before 2009. In June, they promised $149 barrels by the end of the year, and today they proudly claim they are holding fast.

  The U.S. stock market suffered from a barrage of bad data yesterday. The crazy-high PPI number mixed in with more nasty housing starts and permits reports. Throw in a generous pinch of renewed financial distress and most markets were recipes for notable losses. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all fell a little over 1%.

  Crude oil has been all over the place this week. Futures shot up to $116 yesterday on a briefly weaker dollar, worries of Fay taking a second swipe at the Florida coast and some supply concerns in Georgia.

Today, oil is back down to $113 after the weekly Energy Dept. supply report. Crude stockpiles soared by 9.4 million barrels last week, more than triple analyst expectations. The only item keeping oil from entering free fall was the EIA’s measure of gasoline supply in the U.S. It declined by 6 million barrels — twice as big as forecast.

  The dollar’s recent rally, as you might guess, has eased a bit. The dollar index hit a yearly high of 77.4 yesterday, but some profit taking and the dark mood surrounding Wall Street today has brought it back to 76.8.

The euro is still at a six-month low of $1.47. The pound has it even worse, dwelling near two-year lows of $1.86. The yen appears to be coping with the dollar rally well, at 109.

  Thus, gold is on the up and up. The spot price jumped $15, to $815, yesterday in New York and has stayed there since.

  “Nickel prices are due for a bounce,” suggests Chris Mayer. “Nickel prices have come down, as have the prices of most commodities recently. The stainless steel industry has a lot to do with the price of nickel, as nickel is an important alloy.”
 
In a note to his Special Situations subscribers, Chris passed along these words of wisdom from Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, a metals company that ought to have a good sense for the market:
 
“Although nickel inventories have been slowly dropping on the London Metal Exchange since the end of April, the downward trend of nickel prices has not reversed.
 
“On the other hand, the demand from non-stainless steel applications of nickel, which represent 35% of global consumption, remains robust. This is the case with alloy steel — used in the production of equipment for mining and energy — and nickel superalloys — used for aircraft and marine engines, foundry and batteries manufacturing…
 
“In the medium term, the combination of low stainless steel inventories and the decline of nickel inventories creates an environment conducive to a strong nickel price recovery in the next expansion cycle of developed economies.”
 
With that in mind, Chris recently offered Mayer’s Special Situations readers a way to play the possible rebound in nickel. Get the ticker here.  

  On the other side of the world, we notice the Shanghai Composite soared 6%. Not because China is hosting what is — so far — an incredibly successful Olympic games, but get this… the Chinese government is considering a fiscal stimulus package. Apparently, China’s “sluggish” 10% growth rate in the first half has Chinese officials spooked.

Rumors are circulating that a stimulus package worth $29-58 billion is in the works. We’ve heard tales of rebate checks, homebuying incentives, even extending trading leverage regulations… all to keep the white-hot Chinese economy ablaze.

Seriously, have they learned nothing from I.O.U.S.A.?

  “Your reaction to the German writer was less than satisfying,” writes a reader responding to yesterday’s 5 , “inasmuch as you refused to engage his points and simply labeled him something contemporary society deems wicked. Stop and consider that evolutionary psychology and biology reveal that yes, humans are tribal and, heaven forbid, even different (oh, the horror!) with varying temperaments, capacities for civil society, and the list goes on.

“Sticking your head in the sand won’t make this fact go away. Nor will throwing out labels in order to stifle debate. Nor will unthinking servitude to the ultimate and overarching principle of liberalism — ‘nondiscrimination.’ Science marches on, dude, and it don’t make no nevermind what your particular political philosophy is.”

  “I am the proud daughter,” adds another, “of an immigrant who learned English, ran his own small business, bought a house, sent his kids through college and never forgot his roots and customs. He died a proud and happy American when he was well into his 80s.

“Your response to the reader who wrote in about foreigners becoming Americans was off the mark. Waves of Americans emigrated from Ireland, Italy, Eastern Europe, Germany, Japan, Scandinavia, Vietnam, Korea, China, etc. All joined the ‘melting pot,’ learned English, were industrious and helped make the USA great.

“The reader is not suggesting that an immigrant family leave behind some old granny or grandpa. What that reader is suggesting, quite correctly, is that newcomers should be prepared to become part of our society, learn the language and work — no going on the dole, no ESL, etc. For you to respond ‘Ugh’ is just plain wrong. Nuts to you!”

The 5: Really? We thought our comments were pretty entertaining. Guess this issue just doesn’t get us worked up.

  “Why don’t you put I.O.U.S.A. on pay-per-view so we in Canada and other areas can have a chance to view it?” asks a reader.  

  “Would love to see the film on Aug. 21,” writes another, “but the nearest theatre is in Seattle, which with travel and hotel, etc., would be a $600 experience. I am a regular contributor to PBS to help ensure that this quality medium stays available to the sane part of the population. It seems to me that I.O.U.S.A. is the kind of programming that PBS would just love to have a chance to broadcast. I am sure that many like me would love to see your film, and I (and, I hope, many others) would pledge $200 to PBS if you could arrange such an event. The general public is financially blind, and it is time for a wake-up call. Wishing you the utmost success on your Aug. 21 showing of I.O.U.S.A.”

The 5: Thank you, they’re both good suggestions. The success of tomorrow’s event will largely determine where the film goes next. So… we urge you to make the effort to see it in a theatre near(est) you.

In fact, Addison is willing to bribe you to do so. Aside from a night of entertainment and a live town hall discussion, we’re offering I.O.U.S.A. moviegoers a free gift. Get your tickets at the link below. Then forward the confirmation e-mail to customerservice@agorafinancial.com . In return, we’ll comp you a year’s subscription to Strategic Investment free of charge. We normally charge $99 for that publication, so it’s a good deal. If you already subscribe, we’ve got an equally handsome offer waiting for you.

Buy your I.O.U.S.A. tickets, here.

Thanks for reading,

Ian Mathias
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. “Some wonder,” the Economist writes of our film, “if it might do for the economy what Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth did for the environment — perhaps with this comparison in mind, Mr. Walker and his supporters talk of a ‘red-ink tsunami’ and bulging ‘fiscal levees.’ But unlike the former vice president, he is no heavy hitter.

“Even jazzed up with fancy graphics, punchy one-liners and a splash of humour, courtesy of Steve Martin, tales of fiscal folly are an acquired taste. Still, I.O.U.S.A is a bold attempt to highlight a potentially huge problem. The Dark Knight it may not be, but for those who care about economic reality as much as cinematic fantasy, it might just be the scariest release of the summer.”

You can read the rest of the Economist piece here.

P.S.S. “We’ve been talking to all matter of the fringe elements of society,” Addison writes from the road. Apparently, he appeared on a socialist collective, all-volunteer radio station in Minneapolis yesterday, which he called an entertaining reprieve from his “regular tour of the ‘vast right-wing conspiracy.’” He’s got seven more interviews today. Frankly, this editor has lost track of whom he’ll be talking to and when.

Tomorrow, Addison hits the road for Omaha for the silver-screen debut Thursday night. Stay tuned for his thoughts from the front lines… and on his dinner with Buffett.

Buffett, by the way, will be in studio on CNBC Friday morning sharing his thoughts on the film and the markets.

  The classical economists argued that the depths of a bust will be directly proportionate to the excesses of the preceding boom. Unfortunately, there are a scant few practicing classical economists left on this shining ball we call home. None of whom has much influence on government policy or sway with American consumers.

  Today, we see further evidence of how deep the housing bust will go. Housing starts, for one, have fallen to a 17-year low. Builders broke ground at an annual rate of 965,000 homes in July. That’s an 11% decline since July 2007 and the fewest homes since 1991.

In the same report, the Commerce Department said building permits for single-family homes sank to a 26-year low in July.

As you might imagine, the Homebuilder Sentiment Index published by Wells Fargo has remained steady at 16 in August, the lowest on record.

  Likewise, shares in the giant government-backed mortgage enablers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are getting hammered again. According to Barron’s columnist Jonathan Laing this week, Fannie and Freddie are so starved for capital they’re refusing to make good on their subprime guarantees.

In many cases, when a mortgage defaults, Fannie or Freddie has been paying only the required interest payments, not the full value of the mortgage. Laing concluded a government bailout is practically imminent.

  Fannie and Freddie had a “Bear Stearns” sort of day in the market yesterday. Investors were demanding over 16% yields on Fannie or Freddie debt. The price of credit default swaps jumped 11% at Fannie and 8% at Freddie. Meanwhile, shares of both companies fell over 22%.

At yesterday’s close, Fannie was “worth” $6.6 billion, Freddie less than $3 billion. Raising as little as $5 billion — which Freddie plans to do — would severely dilute shareholder value. Existing shareholders have no reason to stay, and prospective share buyers are demanding sky-high yields.

  But Fannie and Freddie aren’t the only ones. According to Dealogic, among the 10 biggest banks on Wall Street, maturing bonds will total $27 billion in August, $52 billion in September, $23 billion in October, $20 billion in November and $86 billion in December.

That’s an extra $208 billion flowing out of Wall Street for the rest of the year… just to keep the lights on.

  So where will financials get the money they need? From these guys:

The smartest guys in the room

U.S. commercial banks borrowed, on average, $17.7 billion a day last week from the Federal Reserve — an all-time high.

  Thus, we’re not at all surprised to see another measure of inflation shooting through the roof this morning. Producer prices inflated “modestly” in July, Reuters reported this morning. And you would agree with it, if you considered nearly 10% “modest.”

Including food and energy, the Labor Department’s measure of PPI jumped 1.2% in July — and 9.8% over the past year. You’d have to reach all the way back into your Calvin Klein designer jeans to see a rate that high. Try 1981.

While July’s number is a bit lower than May’s 1.8% increase, the latest PPI reading was still double Wall Street’s best guess. Even the Fed’s “core” rate is up to 3.5% — a 17-year high.

  Congress is helping out with these critical issues by doing… nothing! Nothing useful, anyway. According to the 20 years of data compiled by Taxpayers for Common Sense, the 110th Congress has passed “only” 294 laws — the fewest since these wonks began keeping a tally. That’s the good news…

Curiously, at the same time, this Congress has proposed over 1,900 resolutions, which is also a record.

Hmmmn… let’s see. They’ve managed to declare Pittsfield, Mass., the official “origin” of baseball; resolved that July is National Watermelon Month; nominated the fourth Saturday in July as the day of the American Cowboy; ooh, and let’s not forget National Funeral Director and Mortician Recognition Day.
 
One of the members of this Congress, we remind you, will be the next president of the United States. We retooled the poster for I.O.U.S.A. for their benefit:

  The U.S. stock market is reacting as you’d expect.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all fell about 1.5% yesterday. The balance sheet recession among Wall Street banks led the indexes down… Fannie and Freddie standing proudly at the helm.

BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner, reported record earnings and nearly doubled its dividend.
 

  Despite the inflationary news coming out this week, the U.S. dollar index has held its ground… and even inched up a tenth of a point, to 77.1.
 

  At the same time, oil fell. Just as traders disregard negative news on the way up, no one seems to care about bullish news on the way down. OPEC threatened to cut output… and Hugo Chavez was overheard blabbering from his fat mouth again today… but the only news that matters is the improved forecast for Hurricane Fay.

As such, oil is trading around $112.

  Only gold, it seems, has reacted to the PPI number and worsening housing and financial crises. The spot price cracked $800 this morning, up about $15 from yesterday.

  “Addison, I say stock picking by an individual investor is almost always a fool’s game,” declares a reader, referring to our market coverage yesterday. “You can’t beat the house. The ‘house’ in this case is the large brokerage houses or funds. They who control over 90% of the market are in charge.

“If you doubt that the deck is stacked against you, consider the recent market. On good news, stocks go down, and on bad news, they go up. The individual gets the news late, after the big boys have moved, and winds up buying/selling after the stock price has moved. The individual investor is too late again.

“There is one area in which a small investor can do well — small stocks. The big boys don’t play here. Here good news still results in an increase in a stock price. What say you?”

The 5: We say have you met our small cap guru Gunner Guenthner ?

  “When one of your readers asked wouldn’t more immigrants provide an increase in tax revenues,” paraphrases a reader, “you answered (more or less) yes.”

“I dare to say: More people and taxpayers do not mean more value. You do not want more money: You want more value. And in our ever more bureaucratic world and government, more working taxpayers do not mean more value. Most ‘taxpayers’ are paid by taxes themselves."

“These arguments about more people is bull***t to me (at least here in Germany). More people mean more intraspecific stress and aggression, and thus more unfriendliness, more murders, more rapes, more negatives … less happiness.”

The 5: And more xenophobia. At least there in Germany.

  “Why don’t YOU give us some fact-based views?” asks a reader, this one referring to the housing crisis. “Have you seen the USA map that color codes foreclosure crises? The ‘collapse’ of the housing bubble (if it indeed has occurred) has mostly been contained within DEEP, but not WIDE pockets. My home is, in fact, worth more than a year ago, but I realize I am in the ‘other kind of hot spot’ in one of the top five fastest growing counties in the sunny South. But even in a normally not-mentioned-by-the-NYT state like Alabama, housing prices, for the most part, are still trending upward.
 
“I have friends in the real estate (housing) business here. Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, Houston all have deep and serious POCKETS of housing woe. Deep, to be sure, but not broad. Many, if not most, of those pockets are ‘crises’ because of lawbreaking or policy bending on the part of homebuilders and lenders (usually together, in a scheme). One of my friends works in the Texas Real Estate Commission and serves as an expert on how lenders break the already lax mortgage loan laws and get away with it year after year after year. A few of his ‘persons of interest’ have recently been convicted and sent the slammer.

“The entire nation (via Freddie/Fannie/Feddy) is suffering not because housing is such a bad idea, but because crooked, corrupt people on BOTH sides of the real estate contract have triggered pockets of crisis. And crooked, corrupt, amoral people in the financial industry packaged lousy loans into pig packages and spritzed them with perfume to sell to the musical chairs players.”

The 5: Umn… OUR home has gone up in value, too. What we reported is the national average, which HAS gone down 16%. Have YOU seen the latest (Case-Shiller Index)?

Regards,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. We’re running a bit late today. In the morning we did some pre-interviews with Fox and CNN. We’ll be on live with Fox Money for Breakfast tomorrow morning around 8:15 a.m. and on CNN on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Then… off to Omaha for the premiere of I.O.U.S.A. We’re slated to have a formal dinner among the filmmakers, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation , Warren Buffett, Bill Novelli from AARP and William Niskanen from Cato before the premiere.

Don’t people pay millions of dollars each year by way of eBay to have dinner with Buffett? Crazytown.

Between the media and travel, it’s going to be a rough couple of days timewise, but I think the film is getting the attention it deserves. Please, if you get a chance, come out and see the premiere and help give it a chance at a fruitful run in theatres. The live Q&A with Buffett et al. following the film should prove rather entertaining in its own right. Join us. You can find a theatre near you, right here.

  Heading into trading this week, the big story is still the greenback. This morning, the dollar finally took a breather from its recent rally. The dollar index retreated from Friday’s high of 77.2 to around 77 on the dot as we write. But looking at the bigger picture, the dollar has had a remarkable run:

You’ll notice the sudden surge in the dollar index even overshadows its brisk decline in February and March, when the world watched Bear Stearns crumble to bits.

That move was rooted in some scary fundamentals… U.S. financials were shedding billions by the day, the stock market was tanking, the housing market was plummeting deeper into the abyss, government was barely able to contain the crisis. The move back up, best we can tell, is rooted mostly in the “Europe is worse than you think” thought process. We’ll let you forecast for yourself where the dollar will likely go from here.

  “This new market environment has been challenging for short sellers,” notes our resident shorter, Dan Amoss. “The “hot money” herd, whether it’s day traders or computer-driven hedge funds, is in the process of unwinding speculative trades that were built upon the assumption of a strong euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate.

“Here’s the current popular sentiment: Now that the ‘euro bull‘ case is unraveling, traders are dumping commodities. Since commodities are falling, many are starting to believe the Federal Reserve won’t have to tighten monetary policy to ‘fight’ inflation. Therefore, you should buy financials and short energy, gold and commodity stocks.

“This is nonsense. The commodities down/financials up trade is not likely to go much further in terms of price. So let’s stick with lasting trends — the trends that are supported by sound fundamental research, rather than hope.”

If you agree with Dan, check out his latest work in Strategic Short Report, here.

  “I expect the [economic] expansion to remain modest certainly into next year,” said Fed President Gary Stern today, adding to Dan’s thesis. The Minneapolis Fed head told the WSJ that “it will take some time for the head winds to dissipate” in the financial and housing sectors.

  If you weren’t watching the markets last week, fear not… you didn’t miss much. The Dow ended a volatile week with a mere 0.6% loss. The S&P 500 ended last week mostly unchanged, and the Nasdaq managed a decent 1.6% gain over the last five days.

  Thus, we notice small caps and tech have been outperforming the market. Or we could say blue chips and large caps stocks are decidedly out of favor.

“The Russell 2000 is nearly back to where it started the year,” notes Jim Nelson of the The Sleuth. “The Dow can’t say that. But we don’t think this trend is over. If the broader market is able to find support, this could be the start of a small-cap cycle — one that will work over long periods of time. We will surely see some more ups and downs, but this breakout marks the start of what could be a multiyear bull market for small caps.”

  That being said, the CEO of the “ultimate” blue chip is as bullish as ever. GE CEO Jeff Immelt told reporters today that “If you’ve got some cash, if you have a strong balance sheet, this is as good of a time you’re going to see.” Immelt told CNBC GE’s financial sector is making deals this year that will move the whole company forward for the next five years.

“Some of the best opportunities we’ve seen in the last 10 years we’re seeing right now. Assets are cheap.” Of course, it’s his job as CEO to be a company cheerleader, but we’ve been hearing similar sentiment from big businesses with money to burn. We’ll keep an eye out for you.

GE’s boss also said he expects business in China to double by 2010. Immelt forecasts $10 billion in revenue there in the next few years, and for China to become a second home base for the company. "I think the whole focus [in China] on water and the environment, that’s going to offer, we think, big opportunities for us as time goes on."

  “The Sino-Indian trade is still booming,” notes Chris Mayer in a similar fold. Amid all the global downturns and slowdowns, business between China and India is humming right along.
 
“Last year, trade between China and India rose 56%, to nearly $39 billion. This year, that total could reach $60 billion, which is about two years ahead of prevailing estimates. Those trade flows should only increase, as the two each seem to have something the other wants or needs.”
 
“India plans to spend $500 billion on infrastructure in the next five years, for example. One of the big areas of concern is basic electrical power. India needs a lot more of it. One need only spend a little time in Mumbai and watch the lights go dim periodically from rolling brownouts. Recently, Reliance Infrastructure inked a joint venture with Shanghai Electric to make power generation equipment. Suzlon Energy, a wind power company in India, also opened a $600 million plant in Tianjin, China, last year.
 
“These are big deals with high stakes, widening the eyes of even veteran observers on the scene. The Indian companies have big ambitions. Time will tell whether their investments pay off. It’s a five-year proposition, as I’ve said before, with these Indian investments. The ups and downs will have you reaching for the Maalox if you worry about the short term. It’s a market I want to be a part of, though, for the long haul.”

If you haven’t read Chris report on investing in India, it’s a must-do. Check out his free research, here.

  Oil prices are up for the first time in three days today. Light sweet crude nudged up to $114 and change, about $1 higher than Friday’s closing price. There’s a whole myriad of geopolitical items that could influence the oil trade… Iran’s firing missiles again, The Russia/Georgia conflict is still hot, Musharraf is stepping down as “president” of Pakistan.

But really, oil is still a dollar trade today. We saw the dollar back down a bit over the weekend and early this morning, and oil inched up in sync.

  This little lady doesn’t seem to be bothering energy traders, either:

That’s Tropical Storm Fay, the latest bout of inclement weather threatening the U.S. coast. She popped up over the weekend, and has already caused some panic in Cuba and is expected to reach Florida Tuesday. The weathermen say Fay might even reach hurricane strength.

But whether it reaches such speeds or not, Fay probably won’t be capable of pushing oil and gas prices through the roof. But if you’re a commodity trader with positions in orange juice… might want to keep an eye on the ticker.

  Gold is in a similar funk as oil. The spot price took a nasty dip to $775 late Friday, but has since rebounded to around $795.

“The present situation reminds me of August 1976,” reminisces GoldMoney’s James Turk, “just weeks before the Democratic National Convention confirmed Jimmy Carter as that party’s presidential candidate. Gold slid down to $100 per ounce even as the inflation and economic outlooks were worsening. Gold looked dirt-cheap back then, even though its price had risen threefold from just a few years before.

“By the end of 1976, gold had climbed 32.3% from its August low. By the end of Carter’s presidency four years later, gold climbed more than eightfold. I wonder where gold will be at the end of the next president’s first term in office?”

  Gasoline prices just won’t stop falling. In fact, retail gas’s fall is becoming even more impressive than its rise earlier this year. The national average has fallen to $3.74 this morning. That’s 32 consecutive days of falling prices… about 36 cents in one month. We’ll take it.

  “The dollar rally that’s had you befuddled all week is almost certainly driven by massive, coordinated intervention,” suggests a reader. “According to Lance Lewis (Lewis Capital in Dallas), foreign central banks boosted their Treasury holdings by almost $26 billion last week, while the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund dropped by 10 billion euros. It is no coincidence that this all transpired while Fannie Mae was collapsing. What better way to inject confidence into the system than forcing a massive squeeze of financial shorts and triggering a simultaneous cliff dive in commodities? It’s an artificial and ephemeral rally that can’t hold. Take advantage of it while you can and load the boat; a sharp reversal is days away.”

  “Regarding your comment about funding Social Security with immigrant taxes,” writes a reader, “my sentiments exactly!! Not that I want to turn a blind eye to U.S. immigration laws that have been broken, but the Republican W. let them in for their cheap labor, and a Democratic O. will legitimatize them as a practical matter of balancing the budget. Clearly, the underground (read untaxed) economy must be brought into the fold to reduce the burden on all of us W-2 schmucks who cannot get away with not filing an annual 1040 with the IRS.”

  “Having more legal immigrants is fine as long as they meet two criteria,” suggests another reader.

“1. They, and any family or others they bring with them, must be young and skilled and major contributors to Social Security and taxes, not recipients.  

“2. They want to be here to assimilate into American society, not create or be part of a foreign enclave. They need to want to abide by American laws and customs, not demand that our culture change to fit the culture that these people left.”

The 5: We can see the sign now: “Welcome to America, leave your tired, old, sick and poor behind. Absolutely, no culture or anti-American influence allowed. Sew all patches on left arm.” Ugh…

Thanks for reading,

Ian Mathias
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. Keep an eye out for I.O.U.S.A. in the news this week. David Walker, the “hero” of the film, has completed interviews recently with Good Morning America, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, Newsweek, Time, NPR and many more. Warren Buffett will reveal his thoughts on the film the morning after the premiere on CNBC’s Squawk Box.

Have you bought your ticket yet? We’re only four days away… reserve your seat here.

P.P.S. And there must be a pirated copy of I.O.U.S.A. already floating around. We’re not sure how else Libertarian presidential nominee Bob Barr got his hands on it. He recently endorsed the movie in a YouTube post that you can find here.

 
  If you’re long precious metals, you were just presented with a very intense “buying opportunity” — if you have the cajones for it, that is.

In fact, if you hold silver, most of the gains you’ve been bragging about this year got wiped out last night. Let’s go to the charts:

Ouch.

Gold fell to around $785, an eight-month low. Silver fell 12% over the last 24 hours, near a one-year low of $12 an ounce.

Just about every commodity got slammed yesterday… all due to a potent combination of remarkable dollar strength and a sudden shift in trader sentiment. The prevailing wisdom says the global economy is entering a slowdown and there’ll be less need for materials, especially “precious metals.”

What do we say to that? What we always say: “Au contraire, mon frere!”

  “No, the bull market in gold is not over,” insists our gold adviser Ed Bugos, in English. “The best is yet to come.”

“So what would it take to see the same love in gold that we saw in tech stocks in 1999, the housing market in 2003-05 or oil recently? The answer is simple: more of the same.

“You will see it in gold when all the usual anti-gold arguments fall flat on their faces. When people no longer believe that the ‘modern-day’ central bank has a handle on inflation and interest rates; that inflation is ‘caused’ by oil, growth or a shortage of goods; or that prices will one day come down. You will see it when people realize that the bubble in commodities is really a destruction of confidence in the medium of exchange.”

Aside from the reason above, Ed sent us another of his top 10 lists. Enjoy:

Top 10 Reasons to End Cheap Gold

• Cost inflation slowing down development pipeline, hence future production growth
• Political risks in frontier countries also shrinking available supplies
• Faltering global economy persuading central bankers to abandon tightening plans
• Soaring government deficits
• Saber rattling between Iran and Israel and other geopolitical tensions heating up
• Another GLD ETF just listed on Hong Kong exchange
• Some countries already experiencing crackup and heightened gold demand
• Shrinking official gold supply
• Seasonal trends turning bullish again into the new year
• Large producer Anglo has yet to cover all its hedges.

(By the way, you can gain access to Ed’s portfolio of favorite gold stocks, here .)

  As we mentioned, the greenback got another healthy boost yesterday. How’s this for twisted logic… we’ve been told that yesterday’s horrible CPI number, which showed U.S. inflation accelerating at a 17-year high, convinced currency traders that the Fed would refrain from lowering rates again soon. That fear boosted the dollar index to a 2008 high.

We’ve come full circle: The dollar is in such bad shape it’s REALLY in good shape.

The dollar index registers at 77 today. The euro sells for $1.47, a six-month low. The pound is dwelling around $1.86. You’d have to go all the way back to December 2006 to find the British currency that “cheap.”
 
The yen is worse off, back to 110.

  Deutsche Bank predicted a 2009 recession in the eurozone today. Europe, the bank says, is just as badly crisis stricken as the U.S. They revised current euro GDP forecasts way down to 1.2%, from 1.7%.

DB analysts also slashed their 2009 growth expectations from 0.8% to 0.1% and said they expect the ECB to cut interest rates by a full point in the first quarter of 2009.

  Back here in I.O.U.S.A., home prices fell again in the second quarter. This time, by another 7.6%. The median existing single-family crib now goes for $206,500, says the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, released this morning.

For what it’s worth, San Jose, Calif.,  has retained the title for the country’s most expensive median home price. The average house there is $755,000. On the flip side, Youngstown, Ohio, is the new home of housing bargain hunters… the median home price is a mere $71,700.

  Ironically, as home prices plummet, home equity loans are skyrocketing.

Since 1980, the value of home equity loans outstanding has multiplied 100 times over, from $1 billion to over $1 trillion. No surprise, the portion of home equity borrowers who are late on payments is currently 55% higher than the historical average. Banks are tracking down over $10 billion in outstanding lines of home equity credit.

  We admit we have a lot of fun with our marketing, but some of these slogans for home equity loans are amazing. Courtesy of today’s New York Times:

“There’s got to be at least $25,000 hidden in your house. We can help you find it.” — Citi (Really? So… it’s not really a debt, then?)

“Is your mortgage squeezing your wallet? Squeeze back.” — Bank of America (Ouch. Sounds painful)

“Seize your someday.” — Wells Fargo. (What does that even mean?)

  “Hmmm… how could I put the U.S. economy in even greater jeopardy?” wondered President Bush this week. “I know… let’s antagonize Russia!”

President Bush told reporters this morning that the U.S. is rushing to Georgia’s defense — even though they started the spat with the former empire to their north. Russia is a threat to the Georgian democracy, Bush asserted today. And of course, Bush, the neo-Wilsonian defender of democracy, feels the moral obligation to stick his nose in the affair.

Yeah… exactly.

The U.S. has, coincidentally, reached a deal to build a missile defense base in Poland. After 18 months of futile negotiations, the Polish suddenly agreed. The Russians responded this morning… they’re pissed.

We can’t wait until Russia and Cuba start chumming it up again. This is going to be fun.

  The oil market has yet to respond to the rising tension between Russia and the U.S. In fact, oil’s still trading inversely to the dollar. Since the greenback is up, oil prices are back down to $111 today.

  Gasoline is down again today, to a national average of $3.77. That’s a three-month low… and starting to feel cheap. Who would have thought that a year ago?

The Energy Information Administration reported today that for every $1 decline in crude oil, gas prices fall by about 2.4 cents a gallon. If refineries were to pass on all their savings from lower oil prices (a big “if”), gasoline would be costing around $3.40 these days. As we’ve suggested, this is likely to be the trend through November.

  But here’s an unfortunate byproduct of recent gas prices: Motorcycle deaths are surging. Motorcycle deaths were up nearly 7% between 2007-2006, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reported today. That’s the 10th consecutive year of rising motorcycle deaths… particularly interesting considering that car-related deaths are on the decline. High gas prices have motorcyclists riding more miles, and are also encouraging new motorcycle purchases.  

Still more fuel-efficient… still hated by mothers everywhere

Since hitting a low in 1997, motorcycle deaths have risen 128%. They are now involved in 13% of all fatal traffic accidents.

  The U.S. stock market enjoyed a day of modest gains yesterday. The dollar strength/oil weakness trade continued, and traders managed to completely shake off that nasty CPI report. Financials led the way, despite some bad legal news across the sector (more on that in a minute). The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 inched up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq rose a whole 1%.
 

  We also note a few interesting purchases made by the legends of Wall Street yesterday. SEC filings showed Warren Buffett doubled his stake in Union Pacific, a U.S. train operator. He also gobbled up 3.2 million shares of NRG Energy, a power wholesaler.
 
For his part, George Soros bought a huge stake in Lehman Bros. The billionaire investor, forecaster of the credit crisis and longtime critic of Wall Street mentality, bought 9.5 million shares of LEH. He now owns about 1.5% of the company. Soros has yet to comment on the SEC filing, but we can only assume he feels this particular financial has fallen too far, too fast.

  Several more brand-name financials have announced auction-rate securities settlements. We told you about UBS’ and Citi’s $25 billion repurchase agreements last week. Today, three more mega-banks have been busted for selling these debt instruments as “sure thing” securities. J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley agreed with the New York attorney general’s office to buy back $7 billion worth of the stuff. Wachovia announced today it would repurchase $8.5 billion.
 
Investors haven’t taken these stocks out to the woodshed over the matter. In fact, financials have been on the up and up all week. But it’s hard to believe these banks have an extra $40 billion lying around to buy back illiquid securities. Steer clear.

  “We are told,” writes a reader, “that when Social Security was created, there were double-digit contributors for each recipient, and now we continue to be told there are fewer and fewer contributors for each recipient. Please explain why the number of contributors continues to decrease while the population continues to increase. Is the baby boom bubble that big? Is this increase in population insignificant? However one feels about population control, we are growing — the numbers indicate by almost 10% more than expected. That should increase the tax base and Social Security revenues. Or am I missing something?”

The 5 responds: The baby boom bubble is that big. And due to increases in the quality of health care, people are living longer. By 2017, the Social Security program will no longer be running a surplus… and that’s when the crotte really starts to hit the fan.

“Second question: If our population is growing so old, why not allow more immigration, instead of imposing more restrictions? Wouldn’t more immigrants provide an increase in tax revenues? (Of course, we would have to quit giving it away faster than it comes in, but that is a different issue.)”

The 5: We’re with you on that one. Why not allow more immigrants legally?

  “It is amazing how your readers do not want to hear the truth,” writes a reader, responding to yesterday’s suggestion that your editors might have to commit hara-kiri if the U.S. pulls itself out of the mess we’re in. “These are people who have access to your excellent stuff. Imagine the average bloke or ‘Joe Six-pack’ who doesn’t have a clue. A country that elects George W. Bush twice must have a disproportionate share of meatheads.
 
“The U.S. should not seek external foes when overspending; driving big cars and SUVs; and saving nothing; plus greedy, unregulated mortgage originators, packagers and sellers set off this current crisis. Let’s hope reaction to the situation in Georgia and the two separatists enclaves do not cause more problems for the U.S.
 
“Spanish is more useful that Cantonese or Mandarin at this juncture, in my opinion.

“Keep up the good work.”

  “I think you were a little hard on your last reader,” writes another. “For the record, I do want an alternative viewpoint to the large media outlets. I don’t bother watching them, because they are short on analysis and facts and long on relentless optimism. To me, they are truly the talking heads of Max Headroom fame. They are a waste of time and create pointless noise that prevent analysis, rather than encourage it.

“However, at age 34, I feel like I’ve lived my entire life in an age when patriotism is something left for rednecks and country music fans. No one with even a vaguely intellectual bent would supposedly have feelings so gauche. (Can you say Jim Rogers?) I think because of that, I’m beginning to feel the ‘America bites’ mantra fatigue. Do we have to be No. 1 and ‘pure’ (if we were ever that) to be proud of our country? When did we get to a point where we must be perfect to be ‘good enough’?”

The 5: Amen.

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

  At the same time, the dollar’s red-hot rise has cooled off. The dollar index started to plateau around 76.4 yesterday, and this morning’s CPI report seems to have traders questioning their recent dollar buying. As we write, the index is creeping lower, to 76.2.

But that’s not enough to reverse the big moves we’ve seen in global currencies lately. The euro still goes for $1.48, and the yen remains a bit depressed, at 109. The pound has been the victim of this dollar rally. The British currency was the dog of the last quarter of 2007, and at $1.87 today, it seems to have returned to its losing ways.

“The pound is melting away,” reports Chuck Butler from the EverBank Trading Desk, “and there’s nothing the Bank of England can do about it. Yesterday, the BOE slashed its growth forecast for the U.K., and that was on a day that saw inflation rise…

“Uh-oh!

“This means stagflation for the U.K., and that’s not a good thing. Of course, I truly believe that’s what’s in our future here in the U.S., too. But that’s for a different discussion, as this is about the pound sterling! The pound sterling is going to be facing an uphill battle versus the dollar, euro and yen this year.”

  A softer dollar is helping push oil back up. Coupled with yesterday’s worse-than-anticipated supply report, we saw crude jump a few bucks, to $116. But today’s data are telling a different story:

  First-half oil demand sank to its lowest level in five years, reported the American Petroleum Institute yesterday. Demand for oil products fell 3.6% year over year during the first six months of 2008. Gasoline deliveries were the real bright spot of the report… deliveries fell more than 2% during the same period, the first significant decline in 17 years.

“We are in the midst of a short- to medium-term correction in the trends for energy and resources,” says our energy analyst Byron King. “Keep this in mind: This is a correction, not a fundamental change in the long-term correlation of things. The long-term trends are still upward, in terms of value and pricing. But for now, the money is leaving energy and resources for pastures that look greener.

“Energy and resource share prices are down, so it’s time to look at your shopping list. You can pick up shares in 2008 and pay 2005 prices. You can build a portfolio for the next five years with some prudent stock picking in the next couple of months.”

Byron, by the way, rattled off his list of beaten-down opportunities in the oil service and mining sectors in the latest issue of Outstanding Investments. “When oil and gold turn around — which they will — all of these companies should do very well.” If you’re not already a subscriber, we recommend you become one, here.  

  The U.S. Census Bureau is also feeling the heat of the spotlight this week. It told us about the sudden and notable decline in retail sales yesterday. Today, the Census Bureau announced some interesting demographic news.

For starters, today’s “minorities” will compose the majority of the U.S. by 2042. In other words, the heyday of the white Western European majority is coming to an end. Check out this chart, courtesy of The New York Times:

The bureau cited higher birthrates among immigrants as the primary reason for the demographic shift.

Also notable is the rising tide of foreign immigration, shifting from 1.3 million this year to 2 million annually by midcentury. It’s also important to note the change in age demographics… the predominately white baby boomers are entering seniority, while the U.S. “minority” population is exceptionally youthful.

Jim Rogers’ “most important advice” to our Investment Symposium attendees this year was to teach our children Mandarin. Heh… might want to start with Spanish.

  The Census Bureau also drastically revised their population growth projections. Nearly 10 years ago, it guessed U.S. population would top 400 million sometime after 2050. Today, they’re guessing that population will exceed 400 million by 2039 and 439 million by 2050.

  On Wall Street today, Wal-Mart’s yet again grabbing headlines. The world’s biggest retailer surprised analysts with a better-than-expected earnings report (not to be confused with its monthly same-store sales data.) The sting of inflation seems to have consumers shopping for the lowest possible prices; thus, Wal-Mart’s earnings were up an impressive 17% for the second quarter.

Up 22% this year, Wal-Mart is the best-performing stock in the Dow.

  The market suffered through another down day yesterday. The bad retail sales number and rising oil weighed especially heavy on blue chips, as the Dow fell 1%. The S&P slipped 0.3%, and the Nasdaq finished unchanged.
 

  We’re more impressed by what isn’t happening in the stock market this week. Money market accounts in the U.S. reached a record $3.5 trillion this week. A staggering $437 billion has raced to the safety of the sidelines already this year.

We’re inclined to think much of that cash will return to inflate the next bubble once there’s a little less blood in the water. Where will it be? Green tech? Biotech? Health care? Commodities? Emerging markets? All of the above?

]]>by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias Inflation rears its ugly head, again… consumer prices skyrocket to 17-year high Chuck Butler with one currency set to go down, down, down for the rest of 2008 Census Bureau unveils startling forecast… minorities set to be majority by 2042  Forget Wall Street… an interesting look at [...]http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/inflation-worsens-crazy-census-stats-greenspan-forecasts-and-more/feed/CPIhttp://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/inflation-worsens-crazy-census-stats-greenspan-forecasts-and-more/http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/5MinForecast/~3/364072339/Today's 5 MinutesadminWed, 13 Aug 2008 12:31:32 -0500http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/?p=277by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias